As we settle into 2025, one question looms large in the minds of recruiting professionals: Is the worst behind us—or yet to come?

In our recent State of the Recruiting Industry Survey, we asked recruiters to weigh in on the future of their industry. The question was simple: Where do you believe things are headed? The responses, however, painted a more complex—and emotionally charged—picture.

Survey Results at a Glance:

• Things will get much better – 13.13%
• Things will get slightly better – 32.50%
• Things will stay pretty much the same as they are now – 19.38%
• Things will get slightly worse – 24.38%
• Things will get much worse – 10.63%

These numbers tell a story of cautious optimism mixed with real apprehension. Nearly half of respondents believe improvement is coming—but for many, it won’t be dramatic or immediate. On the other end of the spectrum, over a third see decline or stagnation ahead.

Let’s dig into the key themes from the open-ended responses that accompanied the data.

1. Guarded Optimism: A Slow Climb, Not a Quick Rebound

Recruiters who expressed hope for the future didn’t frame it as a surge—they expect a measured, gradual improvement.

“It won’t happen immediately, but I think the economy will start to improve by the end of the year.”

“I think we’ve already started to slowly climb out of the hole we were in after the unsustainable spike from 2020–2022 and the crash in 2023. Of course, I’m speaking in terms of the biotech arena, because that’s what I know.”

Even among those expecting things to get “much better,” that improvement is seen as something happening in Q3 or Q4 of 2025—not the immediate present.

“The third and fourth quarter will be better.”

Others are seeing indicators of recovery already, particularly in the behavior of decision-makers.

“As much as there’s some uncertainty, I’m seeing more confidence with hiring managers and owners than we saw last year and even the year prior.”

Healthcare, construction, and specialized technical roles (such as energy and architecture) are among the sectors that recruiters feel will lead the recovery.

“My specialty is healthcare architects. There is a big need for healthcare facilities. Lots of building, design and construction in our future.”

2. Stuck in the Middle: A Holding Pattern in Hiring

Nearly one in five respondents said they expect little change ahead—at least for the next year. This middle-of-the-road view dominated comments that used phrases like “wait and see,” “holding pattern,” or “stabilization.”

“I don’t see a major upswing or downturn happening quickly—more of a slow, uneven climb. Some industries will stabilize, others may lag, and hiring will likely remain cautious.”

“The country and economy are in a state of flux. I do not believe we will see any significant changes in 2025.”

This group includes many recruiters who are closely watching macroeconomic signals—but also those who feel their industries are resistant to major swings.

“Military and manufacturing will continue to grow. Technology will go through a competitive fight, and some of these companies may not be around in five years. I am in aerospace manufacturing, and I believe this will continue to grow.”

This “neutral zone” is one of complexity. Recruiters here are staying prepared to pivot in either direction depending on external events—particularly trade policy, inflation rates, and political clarity post-election.

3. The Warning Signs: Hiring Headwinds Ahead

Just under 35% of recruiters believe things will get worse—either slightly or significantly. They point to a host of economic and geopolitical concerns that are beginning to weigh heavily on the hiring landscape.

“The threat of a recession, consumer spending trending down, and tariffs are making for a bleak outlook.”

“Companies laying off people or closing will put even more demand on unemployment. Where is that money supposed to come from, with so many fewer people working and contributing to the fund?”

High inflation, trade wars, stock market volatility, and regulatory uncertainty were all mentioned repeatedly. Some recruiters tied their pessimism directly to political leadership and anticipated economic policy outcomes.

“Over 40 years in recruiting. Business consistently drops off during Republican administrations. This one will be no different. Depending on how chaotic it continues to be, it could result in a bigger decline than in the past.”

“I’m worried that what was a strong economy for the past few years will cool off very quickly with unnecessary trade wars and tariffs.”

Another echoed the tax base issue and structural consequences from prolonged unemployment:

“Nobody is looking three or four steps out at the tax problems from less people working and adding to the tax base. I think we are headed for big, big trouble.”

This concern also extended to corporate behavior. Many respondents said that companies are tightening budgets, freezing non-essential spending, and delaying new hiring decisions—creating a chilling effect on the recruiting industry.

“Confidence is gone in the C-suite. Everyone is buckling the hatches and restricting all unnecessary spending.”

“Companies are hesitant to hire right now.”

4. Politics, Policy & Tariffs: The Elephant in the Interview Room

Politics—particularly around tariffs, trade, and post-election fallout—was one of the most cited external factors affecting sentiment.

“Until the market steadies from the tariff talks, it is going to be a tight market.”

“Tariffs are having an adverse effect on the markets.”

Many recruiters tied 2024’s hiring slowdown to election-year uncertainty and now feel that, at the very least, companies can plan with more clarity, even if they don’t love the outcome.

“Fall of 2024 was a ‘wait and see’ what happens in the U.S. election. At least now employers know what to expect for the next four years… it’s less concerning than the unknown we were dealing with.”

Others were more direct in expressing concerns about the current administration’s direction:

“I am very concerned with the state of the economy under the new government administration.”

“Uncertainty created by the current administration and the illegal activities of this administration are already hurting. Uncertainty is the reason a lot of companies are not hiring.”

Whether or not one agrees with the politics, the trend is undeniable: uncertainty leads to hesitation, and hesitation leads to hiring delays. And for recruiters, delay often equals drought.

5. Industry-by-Industry Divergence: There Is No Single Story

The responses make it clear that not all parts of the recruiting industry are traveling the same path.

Some recruiters in healthcare, manufacturing, and energy are anticipating hiring increases—even amidst broader economic uncertainty.

“In healthcare, the need is greater, so it should improve slightly.”

“My industry is energy, and we should see hiring this year. But I am concerned with how the economy will affect other industries.”

Others in technology, light industrial, and consumer goods are bracing for tougher times.

“High inflation and low economic activity is starting a decline in staffing/hiring in Q1, which I believe will continue throughout the year.”

This divergence means that broad economic trends are only part of the story. Recruiters who specialize in resilient or high-demand sectors are better positioned to weather short-term volatility. Those in more discretionary sectors may need to pivot or diversify more quickly.

6. Hope and Humor in Uncertain Times

Despite all the worry, there’s one thing recruiters never seem to lose: their sense of humor and determination. Several respondents didn’t mince words when asked about the future.

“Honestly, I have no flipping clue.”

“Trying to stay positive, but it may get worse before it gets better.”

“Things will get worse before they get better in the second half.”

And yet, in the very next breath, many expressed a resilient hope that improvement is coming—even if it takes some pain first.

“Things should dramatically improve under Trump. It may take some initial pain and adjustment first.”

“We are in an adjustment/restructuring/consolidation period in Q1. History tells us it’ll improve.”

“I am REALLY hopeful that things will get much better.”

Final Thoughts: A Year That Demands Agility, Empathy, and Realism

The recruiting industry is no stranger to uncertainty. But what sets 2025 apart is the volume of overlapping pressures: economic, political, technological, and emotional.

If there’s one takeaway from this survey, it’s that recruiters are living in a world where the ground shifts weekly. To succeed this year, recruiting professionals must:

• Stay nimble, ready to pivot industries, sourcing methods, and client relationships.
• Double down on relationship-building, offering value beyond resume-matching.
• Understand macroeconomic trends, but stay grounded in local and industry-specific realities.
• Take care of their own mental health and burnout risk, especially during prolonged downturns.

As one respondent reminded us:

“History tells us it’ll improve.”

It may take time, and it may not be linear—but this industry has weathered worse. And for those who stay adaptable, empathetic, and laser-focused on value, 2025 may still turn out to be a year of quiet, steady progress.